The Impact of Condom use on the Projected Number of HIV-Infected Individuals in Mexico

Abstract

This study presents a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations to predict HIV dynamics in Mexico from 2018 to 2022, with a 20-year projection. The model incorporates key transmission pathways, including vertical (mother-to-child) transmission, sexual transmission among gay men, and migration, while evaluating control strategies— particularly condom usage and its impact on infection rates. Projections indicate a rising trend in HIV cases over time. Sensitivity analyses assess the influence of critical parameters, such as variations in condom use across population groups. Notably, the model explicitly includes migrant men as a distinct parameter, reflecting migration’s role in HIV spread. While the study underscores the effectiveness of condombased interventions in reducing transmission, it does not assess alternative strategies like pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Simulations demonstrate that increased condom use can significantly mitigate HIV spread, offering actionable insights for public health policy and prevention programs.